Calendar

Week 1

Jan 19

Lecture 1: Class Overview: Notes / HW1 (due 01/24) / Course Overview / Slides

Jan 21

Discussion 1: Calibration: Discussion Worksheet / Reading (through end of Exercise 13-5)

Week 2

Jan 24

Lecture 3: Scoring Rules: Notes / HW2 (due 01/31)

Jan 26

Lecture 4: Estimation: Notes

Jan 28

Discussion 2: Estimation: Discussion Worksheet / Reading

Week 3

Jan 30

Lecture 5: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting: Notes / Slides / HW3 (due 02/07)

Feb 1

Lecture 6: Base Rates and Reference Classes: Notes / Slides

Feb 3

Discussion 3: Discussion Worksheet

Week 4

Feb 7

Lecture 7: The “Other” Option: Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/14) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook) / Reading (due 2/10)

Feb 9

Lecture 8: Combining Forecasts (Part 1): Slides / Notes

Feb 11

Discussion 4: The Inner Game of Forecasting: Discussion Worksheet

Week 5

Feb 13

Lecture 9: Combining Forecasts (Part 2): Slides / HW5 (due 2/22) / Notes / Reading (pages 1-8, due 2/17)

Feb 15

Lecture 10: Common Probability Distributions: Slides / Notes

Feb 17

Discussion 5: Discussion Worksheet

Week 6

Feb 20

President's Day

Feb 22

Lecture 11: Prioritizing Information: Slides / HW6 (due 02/28) / Notes

Week 7

Feb 27

No Lecture

Mar 1

Lecture 12: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities: Slides / HW7 (due 3/7) / Notes

Mar 3

Discussion 7: Discussion Worksheet

Week 8

Mar 6

Lecture 13: Cognitive Biases Pt. 1: Slides / HW8 (due 3/15) / Reading

Mar 8

Lecture 14: Cognitive Biases Pt. 2: Slides (same as previous)

Mar 10

Discussion 8: Discussion Worksheet Version 1 / Discussion Worksheet Version 2

Week 9

Mar 13

Lecture 15: Information Hygiene: Slides / Notes / HW9 (due 03/21) / Reading

Mar 15

Lecture 16: Guest Lecture: Slides

Mar 17

Discussion 9: Discussion worksheet

Week 10

Mar 20

Lecture 17: Belief are Martingales: HW10 (due 04/04) / Notes

Mar 22

Lecture 18: Independence Assumptions: Final Project Description

Mar 24

Discussion 10

Week 11

Mar 27: Spring Recess
Mar 29: Spring Recess
Mar 31: Spring Recess

Week 12

Apr 3

Lecture 20: Kelly Betting: HW 11 (due 04/11)

Apr 5

Lecture 21: AI Forecasting Pt. 1: Final Project Proposal instructions (due 04/12)

Apr 7

Discussion 11: Discussion Worksheet

Week 13

Apr 10

Lecture 22: AI Forecasting Pt. 2: HW 12 (due 4/18)

Apr 13

Lecture 23: Forecasting Software Tools: Slides

April 15

Discussion 12

Week 14

Apr 18

Lecture 24: Avoiding Statistical Traps: Slides

Apr 20

Lecture 25: The Winner's Curse and Adverse Selection: Notebook

Apr 22

Discussion 13