Calendar
HW + Forecasting exercises are released Wednesdays and due the following Tuesday.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.
Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still
held during a regular lecture slot.
Week 1
 Jan 17

 Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap)
 Notes / HW1 (due 01/23) / Course Overview / Slides
 Jan 19

 Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity)
 Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions
Week 2
 Jan 22
 Jan 24
 Jan 26

 Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 135)
Week 3
 Jan 29
 Jan 31
 Feb 2

 Discussion 3: Base Rates practice
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics
Week 4
 Feb 5
 Feb 7

 Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
 Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/13) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)
 Feb 9

 Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting (due 2/9)
Week 5
 Feb 12
 Feb 14
 Feb 16

 Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets (pages 18, due 2/17)
Week 6
 Feb 19
 Presidents' Day
 Feb 21
 Feb 23

 Discussion 6: Wits & Wagers
 Discussion Worksheet / No Quiz!
Week 7
 Feb 26
 Feb 28

 Lecture 12: Numerical Methods for Combining Considerations
 Slides / HW7 (due 3/5) / Notes / Final Project Description / Final Project Proposal instructions (due 03/19)
 Mar 1

 Discussion 7: Confidence Intervals Practice
 Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions / Quiz on Reading: Benford's Law and Zipf's Law
Week 8
 Mar 4
 Mar 6
 Mar 8

 Discussion 8: Cognitive Biases
 Discussion Worksheet Version 1 / Discussion sheet Version 2 / Discussion Solutions / Quiz Reading
Week 9
 Mar 11
 Mar 13
 Mar 15

 Discussion 9: Independence Assumptions
 Discussion worksheet / Quiz Reading
Week 10
Spring Break
 Mar 25
 Spring Recess
 Mar 27
 Spring Recess
 Mar 29
 Spring Recess
Week 11
 Apr 1
 Apr 3
 Apr 5

 Discussion 11 (optional): Martingales and Kelly Betting
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Election Forecasting
Week 12
 Apr 8

 Lecture 21: Guest Speaker: Forecasting with LLMs
 Slides
 Apr 10

 Lecture 22: Guest Speaker: Pandemic Forecasting
 HW 12 (due 4/19)
 April 12

 Discussion 12: Forecasting on the Fly
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: AI Forecasting
Week 13
 Apr 15

 Lecture 23: Guest Speaker: Forecasting and DecisionMaking
 Apr 17

 Lecture 24: Forecasting the Future of AI
 Slides / Research Slides
 Apr 19

 Discussion 13: Forecasting your Own Life
 Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Week 14
 Apr 22
 Apr 24

 Lecture 26: Predictions Affecting Outcomes
 Slides
 Apr 26

 Final Project Poster Session
 Quiz on Reading: Pandemic Forecasting
RRR Week
 Apr 29
 RRR Week
 May 1
 RRR Week
 May 3
 RRR Week
Week 16
 May 5

 Final Projects Due