Calendar

HW + Forecasting exercises are released Wednesdays and due the following Tuesday.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.

Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still held during a regular lecture slot.

Week 1

Jan 17

Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap): Notes / HW1 (due 01/23) / Course Overview / Slides

Jan 19

Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity): Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions

Week 2

Jan 22

Lecture 2: Scoring Rules: Notes / Slides

Jan 24

Lecture 3: Fermi Estimation: Notes / HW2 (due 01/30) / Slides

Jan 26

Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)

Week 3

Jan 29

Lecture 4: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting: Notes / Slides

Jan 31

Lecture 5: Base Rates and Reference Classes: Notes / Slides / HW3 (due 02/06)

Feb 2

Discussion 3: Base Rates practice: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics

Week 4

Feb 5

Lecture 6: “Other” Options: Slides / Notes

Feb 7

Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1): Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/13) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)

Feb 9

Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting (due 2/9)

Week 5

Feb 12

Lecture 8: Combining Forecasts (Part 2): Slides / Notes

Feb 14

Lecture 9: Common Probability Distributions: Slides / Notes / HW5 (due 2/20)

Feb 16

Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets (pages 1-8, due 2/17)

Week 6

Feb 19

Presidents' Day

Feb 21

Lecture 10: Prioritizing Information: Slides / HW6 (due 02/27) / Notes

Feb 23

Discussion 6: Wits & Wagers: Discussion Worksheet / No Quiz!

Week 7

Feb 26

Lecture 11: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities: Slides / Notes

Feb 28

Lecture 12: Numerical Methods for Combining Considerations: Slides / HW7 (due 3/5) / Notes / Final Project Description / Final Project Proposal instructions (due 03/19)

Mar 1

Discussion 7: Confidence Intervals Practice: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions / Quiz on Reading: Benford's Law and Zipf's Law

Week 8

Mar 4

Lecture 13: Cognitive Biases Pt. 1: Slides / Notes

Mar 6

Lecture 14: Cognitive Biases Pt. 2: Slides (same as previous) / HW8 (due 3/12)

Mar 8

Discussion 8: Cognitive Biases: Discussion Worksheet Version 1 / Discussion sheet Version 2 / Discussion Solutions / Quiz Reading

Week 9

Mar 11

Lecture 15: Independence Assumptions: Slides / Notes

Mar 13

Lecture 16: Independence Assumptions (Part 2): Notebook / Notes / HW9 (due 03/19)

Mar 15

Discussion 9: Independence Assumptions: Discussion worksheet / Quiz Reading

Week 10

Mar 18

Lecture 17: Beliefs Across Time (Martingales): Notes

Mar 20

Lecture 18: Kelly Betting: Notes / Notebook / HW10 (due 04/05)

Mar 22

Discussion 10: Wits & Wagers: Discussion worksheet

Spring Break

Mar 25: Spring Recess
Mar 27: Spring Recess
Mar 29: Spring Recess

Week 11

Apr 1

Lecture 19: Information Hygiene: Slides / Notes

Apr 3

Lecture 20: Regression to the Mean and Statistical Traps: Slides / Notes / HW 11 (due 04/12)

Apr 5

Discussion 11 (optional): Martingales and Kelly Betting: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Election Forecasting

Week 12

Apr 8

Lecture 21: Guest Speaker: Forecasting with LLMs: Slides

Apr 10

Lecture 22: Guest Speaker: Pandemic Forecasting: HW 12 (due 4/19)

April 12

Discussion 12: Forecasting on the Fly: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: AI Forecasting

Week 13

Apr 15

Lecture 23: Guest Speaker: Forecasting and Decision-Making

Apr 17

Lecture 24: Forecasting the Future of AI: Slides

Apr 19

Discussion 13: Forecasting your Own Life: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem

Week 14

Apr 22

Lecture 25: Winner's Curse: Slides / Notebook

Apr 24

Lecture 26: Predictions Affecting Outcomes: Slides

Apr 26

Final Project Poster Session: Quiz on Reading: Pandemic Forecasting

RRR Week

Apr 29

RRR Week

May 1

RRR Week

May 3

RRR Week

Week 16

May 5

Final Projects Due