Calendar
This calendar is subject to change. Please check back regularly for updates.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.
Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still
held during a regular lecture slot.
Week 1
- Jan 22
-
- Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap)
- Notes / HW1 (due 01/28) / Course Overview / Slides
- Jan 24
-
- Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity)
- Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions
Week 2
- Jan 27
-
- Lecture 2: Scoring Rules
- Notes
- Jan 29
- Jan 31
-
- Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)
Week 3
- Feb 3
- Feb 5
- Feb 7
-
- Discussion 3: Base Rates practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics
Week 4
- Feb 10
- Feb 12
-
- Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
- Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/19) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)
- Feb 14
-
- Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting
Week 5
- Feb 17
- Presidents' Day
- Feb 19
- Feb 21
-
- Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets
Week 6
Week 7
- Mar 3
- Mar 5
-
- Lecture 12: Numerical Methods for Combining Considerations
- Slides / HW7 (due 3/14) / Notes / Final Project Description / Final Project Proposal Instructions (due 03/21)
- Mar 7
-
- Discussion 6: Turning Considerations into Probabilities
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Benford's Law and Zipf's Law
Week 8
- Mar 10
- Mar 12
- Mar 14
-
- Discussion 8: Cognitive Biases
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz Reading
Week 9
Week 10
- Mar 24
- Spring Recess
- Mar 26
- Spring Recess
- Mar 28
- Spring Recess
Week 11 (Tentative)
- Mar 31
-
- Lecture 17: Beliefs Across Time (Martingales)
- Notes
- Apr 2
-
- Lecture 18: Kelly Betting
- Notes / Notebook / HW10 (due 04/11)
- Apr 4
-
- Discussion 9: Independence Assumptions
- Discussion worksheet / Quiz Reading
Week 12 (Tentative)
Week 13 (Tentative)
- Apr 14
-
- Lecture 21: TBD
- Slides
- Apr 16
-
- Lecture 22: TBD
- HW 12 (due 4/25)
- April 18
-
- Discussion 11: TBD
-
Discussion Worksheet
/
Quiz on Reading: AI Forecasting
Week 14 (Tentative)
- Apr 21
-
- Lecture 23: TBD
- Apr 23
-
- Lecture 24: Forecasting the Future of AI
- Slides / Research Slides
- Apr 25
-
- Discussion 12: Forecasting on the Fly
-
Discussion Worksheet
/
Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Week 15 (Tentative)
- Apr 28
-
- Lecture 25: TBD
- Apr 30
-
- Lecture 26: TBD
- Slides / Research Slides
- May 2
-
- Discussion 13: Forecasting your Own Life
-
Discussion Worksheet
/
Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem
RRR Week
- May 5
- RRR Week
- May 7
- RRR Week
- May 9
-
- RRR Week
-
Final Project Due