Calendar

This calendar is subject to change. Please check back regularly for updates.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.

Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still held during a regular lecture slot.

Week 1

Jan 22

Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap): Notes / HW1 (due 01/28) / Course Overview / Slides

Jan 24

Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity): Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions

Week 2

Jan 27

Lecture 2: Scoring Rules: Notes

Jan 29

Lecture 3: Fermi Estimation: Notes / HW2 (due 02/04) / Slides

Jan 31

Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)

Week 3

Feb 3

Lecture 4: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting: Notes Slides

Feb 5

Lecture 5: Base Rates and Reference Classes: Slides / Notes / HW3 (due 02/11)

Feb 7

Discussion 3: Base Rates practice: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solution / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics

Week 4

Feb 10

Lecture 6: “Other” Options: Slides / Notes

Feb 12

Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1): Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/19) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)

Feb 14

Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solution / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting

Week 5

Feb 17

Presidents' Day

Feb 19

Lecture 8: Combining Forecasts (Part 2): Slides / Notes / HW5 (due 2/27)

Feb 21

Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solution / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets

Week 6

Feb 24

Lecture 9: Common Probability Distributions: Slides / Notes

Feb 26

Lecture 10: Prioritizing Information: Slides / HW6 (due 03/07) / Notes

Feb 28

No Discussion/Quiz

Week 7

Mar 3

Lecture 11: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities: Slides / Notes

Mar 5

Lecture 12: Numerical Methods for Combining Considerations: Slides / HW7 (due 3/14) / Notes / Final Project Description / Final Project Proposal Instructions (due 03/21)

Mar 7

Discussion 6: Turning Considerations into Probabilities: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solution / Quiz on Reading: Benford's Law and Zipf's Law

Week 8

Mar 10

Lecture 13: Cognitive Biases Pt. 1: Slides / Notes

Mar 12

Lecture 14: Cognitive Biases Pt. 2: Slides (same as previous) / HW8 (due 3/21)

Mar 14

Discussion 8: Cognitive Biases: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solution / Quiz Reading

Week 9

Mar 17

Lecture 15: Independence Assumptions: Slides / Notes

Mar 19

Lecture 16: Independence Assumptions (Part 2): Notebook / Notes / HW9 (due 4/4)

Mar 21

No Discussion/Quiz: Final Project Proposal Due

Week 10

Mar 24: Spring Recess
Mar 26: Spring Recess
Mar 28: Spring Recess

Week 11

Mar 31

Lecture 17: Beliefs Across Time (Martingales): Notes

Apr 2

Lecture 18: Kelly Betting: Notes / HW10 (due 04/11)

Apr 4

Discussion 9: Independence Assumptions: Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions / Quiz Reading

Week 12

Apr 7

Lecture 19: Information Hygiene: Slides / Notes

Apr 9

Lecture 20: Regression to the Mean and Statistical Traps: Slides
/ Notes / HW 11 (due 04/18)

Apr 11

Discussion 10: Martingales and Kelly Betting: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Video: Election Forecasting / Discussion Solutions

Week 13

Apr 14

Lecture 21: Guest Speaker

Apr 16

Lecture 22: TBD: HW 12 (due 4/25)

April 18

Discussion 11: Forecast Your Own Life: Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: AI Forecasting

Week 14 (Tentative)

Apr 21

Lecture 23: TBD

Apr 23

Lecture 24: Forecasting the Future of AI

Apr 25

No Discussion/Quiz

Week 15 (Tentative)

Apr 28

Lecture 25: TBD

Apr 30

Lecture 26: TBD

May 2

No Discussion/Quiz

RRR Week

May 5

RRR Week

May 7

RRR Week

May 9

RRR Week: Final Project Due