Calendar
HW + Forecasting exercises are released Wednesdays and due the following Tuesday.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.
Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still
held during a regular lecture slot.
Week 1
- Jan 22
-
- Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap)
- Notes / HW1 (due 01/28) / Course Overview / Slides
- Jan 24
-
- Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity)
- Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions
Week 2
- Jan 27
-
- Lecture 2: Scoring Rules
- Notes
- Jan 29
- Jan 31
-
- Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)
Week 3
- Feb 3
- Feb 5
- Feb 7
-
- Discussion 3: Base Rates practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics
Week 4
- Feb 10
- Feb 12
-
- Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
- Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/19) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)
- Feb 14
-
- Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting
Week 5
- Feb 17
- Presidents' Day
- Feb 19
- Feb 21
-
- Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice
- Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets