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Calendar

This calendar is subject to change. Please check back regularly for updates.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.

Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still held during a regular lecture slot.

Week 1

Jan 22
Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap)
Notes / HW1 (due 01/28) / Course Overview / Slides
Jan 24
Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity)
Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions

Week 2

Jan 27
Lecture 2: Scoring Rules
Notes
Jan 29
Lecture 3: Fermi Estimation
Notes / HW2 (due 02/04) / Slides
Jan 31
Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)

Week 3

Feb 3
Lecture 4: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
Notes Slides
Feb 5
Lecture 5: Base Rates and Reference Classes
Slides / Notes / HW3 (due 02/11)
Feb 7
Discussion 3: Base Rates practice
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics

Week 4

Feb 10
Lecture 6: “Other” Options
Slides / Notes
Feb 12
Lecture 7: Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
Slides / Notes / HW4 (due 02/19) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)
Feb 14
Discussion 4: Likelihood Thermometer
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: The Inner Game of Forecasting

Week 5

Feb 17
Presidents' Day
Feb 19
Lecture 8: Combining Forecasts (Part 2)
Slides / Notes / HW5 (due 2/27)
Feb 21
Discussion 5: Combining Forecasts Practice
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Prediction Markets

Week 6

Feb 24
Lecture 9: Common Probability Distributions
Slides / Notes
Feb 26
Lecture 10: Prioritizing Information
Slides / HW6 (due 03/07) / Notes
Feb 28
No Discussion/Quiz

Week 7

Mar 3
Lecture 11: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities
Slides / Notes
Mar 5
Lecture 12: Numerical Methods for Combining Considerations
Slides / HW7 (due 3/14) / Notes / Final Project Description / Final Project Proposal Instructions (due 03/21)
Mar 7
Discussion 6: Turning Considerations into Probabilities
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Benford's Law and Zipf's Law

Week 8

Mar 10
Lecture 13: Cognitive Biases Pt. 1
Slides / Notes
Mar 12
Lecture 14: Cognitive Biases Pt. 2
Slides (same as previous) / HW8 (due 3/21)
Mar 14
Discussion 8: Cognitive Biases
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz Reading

Week 9

Mar 17
Lecture 15: Independence Assumptions
Slides / Notes
Mar 19
Lecture 16: Independence Assumptions (Part 2)
Notebook / Notes / HW9 (due 4/4)
Mar 21
No Discussion/Quiz
Final Project Proposal Due

Week 10

Mar 24
Spring Recess
Mar 26
Spring Recess
Mar 28
Spring Recess

Week 11 (Tentative)

Mar 31
Lecture 17: Beliefs Across Time (Martingales)
Notes
Apr 2
Lecture 18: Kelly Betting
Notes / Notebook / HW10 (due 04/11)
Apr 4
Discussion 9: Independence Assumptions
Discussion worksheet / Quiz Reading

Week 12 (Tentative)

Apr 7
Lecture 19: Information Hygiene
Slides / Notes
Apr 9
Lecture 20: Regression to the Mean and Statistical Traps
Slides / Notes / HW 11 (due 04/18)
Apr 11
Discussion 10: Wits & Wagers
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Election Forecasting

Week 13 (Tentative)

Apr 14
Lecture 21: TBD
Slides
Apr 16
Lecture 22: TBD
HW 12 (due 4/25)
April 18
Discussion 11: TBD
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: AI Forecasting

Week 14 (Tentative)

Apr 21
Lecture 23: TBD
Apr 23
Lecture 24: Forecasting the Future of AI
Slides / Research Slides
Apr 25
Discussion 12: Forecasting on the Fly
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem

Week 15 (Tentative)

Apr 28
Lecture 25: TBD
Apr 30
Lecture 26: TBD
Slides / Research Slides
May 2
Discussion 13: Forecasting your Own Life
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Aumann's Agreement Theorem

RRR Week

May 5
RRR Week
May 7
RRR Week
May 9
RRR Week
Final Project Due