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Calendar

HW + Forecasting exercises are released Wednesdays and due the following Tuesday.
Quizzes (on the readings) take place on Fridays. Readings are released Mondays.

Note: “Discussion” refers to lectures that are in a flipped classroom format, but they are still held during a regular lecture slot.

Week 1

Jan 22
Lecture 1: Class Overview (What is forecasting, why should we expect to be able to train it as a skill, course roadmap)
Notes / HW1 (due 01/28) / Course Overview / Slides
Jan 24
Discussion 1: Calibration (short intro to calibration, followed by activity)
Discussion Worksheet / Discussion Solutions

Week 2

Jan 27
Lecture 2: Scoring Rules
Notes
Jan 29
Lecture 3: Fermi Estimation
Notes / HW2 (due 02/04) / Slides
Jan 31
Discussion 2: Fermi Estimation Practice
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: What are (probabilistic) beliefs? (through end of Exercise 13-5)

Week 3

Feb 3
Lecture 4: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
Notes Slides
Feb 5
Lecture 5: Base Rates and Reference Classes
Notes / HW3 (due 02/11)
Feb 7
Discussion 3: Base Rates practice
Discussion Worksheet / Quiz on Reading: Review of Bayesian Statistics